Time lag in base popuplation change, misleading statistics COVID-19

The following is the fatal rate of COVID-19 in China.

Graph A

The above graph (A) shows a convex curve rising from 2% to the current 4%.



The graph (B) below shows a concave curve desending from 14% to 4%.

Graph B

Graph A shows a low inital fatal rate of just 2%.
Graph B says otherwise, a 14% initially.
The hugh difference is the base population of confirmed case.

In graph (A) both the base and the fatal figure starts from Jan 28, 2020.

The fatal figure in graph (B) starts from Feb 7, the base figure starts from Jan 28, 2020.
As the health authority estimated the median of  number days a confirmed case fails is 10 to 14 days, so a 12 days lag  from the fatal data is used in the base figure.

From graph A the fatal rate is not yet flatten out.

However ,graph B shows that the fatal rate starts to flat out at 4% from Feb 27 onwards.
So the spread of virus may not under contain but the treatment or measure taken to cure the infected patients have kept the fatal rate under control.
On the other hand one should take a deeper look into the seemingly tough 4% line., be it due to age, chronic disease or whatever reason.

So graph A is good for show to your voter at the initial outbreak stage
but graph B is more useful in public health decision making and more presentable to voters.

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